Active system

KTrader
Research, decisions, guards, receipts.

KTrader is the infrastructure behind two trading lanes: prediction markets and equity and options paper trading. A model can research and propose a decision. It cannot redefine the execution rules or rewrite what happened afterward.

Activeprediction marketspaper tradingrisk controlsaudit trail
Prediction-market and paper-trading lanes share a sealed path from research and decision through deterministic guards to an execution or hold receipt.
The model proposes one bounded action. Server-side code decides what is allowed to execute.

Two lanes, different risk

Shared infrastructure
Prediction markets

Estimate before seeing the quote

Research produces an independent probability before live price is exposed. Fees, spread, timing, sizing, and position rules are checked later.

Paper trading

Test the whole path safely

Equity and long-option decisions use a paper environment with deterministic universe, quantity, buying-power, overlap, and drawdown controls.

Shared contract

Bind the decision to the result

Research, decision, guard result, execution attempt, and outcome remain separate artifacts linked by stable identifiers and hashes.

One decision, sealed end to end

The execution contract

Portfolio context

Each run starts from current account state, positions, open orders, market data, and previous research lineage.

Source-backed research

Research is stored as a durable artifact. Prediction-market estimates are made before the live quote is exposed.

Independent decision

A separate critic reviews the research and produces one bounded action sealed to the exact research artifact.

Deterministic execution

Server-side code re-reads live state and enforces limits, conflicts, freshness, quote drift, position rules, and venue-specific checks.

The receipt is the final word

Synthetic fixture, real contract

The message layer reads from the receipt, not from the model's memory of the decision. A deterministic validator rejects invented numbers, missing facts, or a result that does not match the recorded execution.

The specimen uses the real receipt shape with synthetic identifiers and no market, ticker, account, quantity, balance, position, schedule, or performance data.

Failure has a recorded shape

No green check without a receipt

Stable action and client-order identifiers make retries idempotent. An ambiguous submission is looked up by that identifier instead of being sent again. Guard violations become explicit holds. API failures fail the run instead of being rewritten as success.

Later reconciliation writes the outcome as another linked artifact. The original research and decision remain unchanged, even when the result is wrong.

Back to the Lab →About the work →